thewar.

Command Palette

Search for a command to run...

2026 Iran War Scenarios – Probability & Severity.

Each wedge represents one scenario. The length indicates probability (0–100), and the color severity (red = high impact, yellow = moderate, green = low).

The 2026 Iran War Scenario: Diego Garcia, American Casualties, and the Risk of Attack – A Data-Driven Analysis

thewar March 28, 2026
Open Article

Interactive Visualization

Use the controls below to manipulate the visualization. You can filter the data range to focus on specific segments or sort the entries to identify high and low performers instantly.

Sort By
2026 Iran War Scenarios – Probability & Severity
Each wedge represents one scenario. The length indicates probability (0–100), and the color severity (red = high impact, yellow = moderate, green = low).
thewarthewar.live
Adjust Visualization Range"Full‑Scale War (25% prob.)" — "De‑escalation (25% prob.)"

In-Depth Analysis Report

Our statistical engine has synthesized the core metrics from this dataset to highlight critical performance indicators and regional variances.

Statistical Extremes

The dataset spans a significant range, reflecting diverse performance levels across the tracked categories.

  • Maximum Value: The highest recorded Score is 100, observed in "Full‑Scale War (25% prob.)".
  • Minimum Value: The lowest recorded Score is 15, observed in "De‑escalation (25% prob.)".

Top Performing Entries

The following list represents the top five entries in the current dataset based on the primary metric:

  • "Full‑Scale War (25% prob.)": 100 (Score)
  • "Limited Conflict (50% prob.)": 55 (Score)
  • "De‑escalation (25% prob.)": 15 (Score)

Data Integrity & Methodology

This analysis is based on 3 unique data points. All values have been normalized and validated for the interactive lab environment. Users can download the raw dataset in CSV format using the button in the visualization header for further independent research.

Download This Boilerplate ⚡